The Creator Economy Winter has Arrived

Substack's civil war shows a whimpering creator and media ecosystem.

Casey Newton, one hand in so many pies.

It’s looking like 2024 is going to be an epic bad year for the Creator Economy.

Kaya Yurieff broke news I didn’t want to hear:

Friday afternoon news dump: Instagram co-founders Kevin Systrom and Mike Krieger are shutting down their news app Artifact.

"We’ve made the decision to wind down operations of the Artifact app. We launched a year ago and since then we’ve been working tirelessly to build a great product. We have built something that a core group of users love, but we have concluded that the market opportunity isn’t big enough to warrant continued investment in this way. It’s easy for startups to ignore this reality, but often making the tough call earlier is better for everyone involved. The biggest opportunity cost is time working on newer, bigger and better things that have the ability to reach many millions of people," Systrom wrote in a blog post.

The company had a small team of 8 people. He said news remain a key area for startup investment

"We are at an existential moment where many publications are shutting down or struggling, local news has all but vanished, and larger publishers have fraught relationships with leading technology companies," Systrom said.

Honestly I’ve been thinking about

Casey Newton

’s decision to leave Substack with his Platformer. Journalists have been turned off by Substack’s free speech policy and lack of moderation for as long as I can remember. So why now? And does it even matter?

Let’s be honest, Casey was all too happy to get free recommendations from Substack while also working for the Verge, the NYT and who knows what else (CNBC contributor, etc..). These young Silicon Valley journalists are making up to and over $1 million dollars. But seriously Eric

Newcomer

has done great with his AI and Venture Capital events.

Real journalists never really have been on Substack’s side per se. And latecomers (relative to how Substack launched recommendations) will have a difficult time monetizing it into a full time gig like some had the good timing of being early case studies. Platformer had been slipping on the Substack leaderboards of late, but as Platformer hires additional journalists I can understand how they think they are the next The Dispatch (who have struggled mightily getting new readers) since they left Substack by the way.

I wouldn’t want to be any of these publications taking an exodus to Ghost, beehiiv, wordpress or wherever they end up. Unless they have serious advertising partners.

Substack has Always had an Exodus Problem

While I can sympathize with Casey’s rationale, he’s been playing Substack in a sense and his cavalier crusade just feels really cringe. It’s not even as if his reporting is that original or that stellar. He’s not some super readable essayist or original analyst. Casey is even a CNBC contributor which is itself pretty cringe and these young journalists or young writers hacking Substack is a bit odd to me. Substack is just a project for them, one in a web where their professional connections and not their writing sustains them.

I think it’s pretty clear now in 2024, Substack is not a great stomping ground for former or current journalists. Nor should Substack be luring those types. Journalists exist on an algorithmic web where content moderation and censorship are everywhere. They serve an establishment, they aren’t really independent.

Since they clearly don’t have much loyalty to the platform or sense of their own journey relative to the benefit of the ecosystem and the privilege Substack (favorites anyone?) game them. Substack has seen a lot of high profile people leave, and they haven’t even addressed the issue (or even acknowledged it, which is pretty crazy):

• Major publications have little reason to stay at Substack once they “reap the benefits” of being a top publication for a couple of years. They ching-ching and leave.

• Bankless and a long list of great publishers have left Substack in recent months and years.

• The Dispatch was way more successful than what Casey Newton is today (top five in Tech).

• Major YouTube personalities have also left this year and Substack even once had Sahil Bloom here, whom many people don’t even realize was even here when he started out for quite some time.

2024 is just a very difficult year for startups and raising Series A rounds, and Creator Economy startups are failing, merging and all the rest which Kaya (The Information) and others have already covered.

Artifact App was easily the best News aggregation app that was ever founded, but if even they didn’t see much momentum, the era of how we read and consume information online really has changed fundamentally.

• Journalism is in decline

• The Creator Economy funding hype didn’t lead to profitable companies (a16z’s boom or bust cycles is about fake hype)

• Writers think they can deplatform without consequences.

• An advertising slowdown has also hurt Creator pocket-wallet books

Substack is having a major issue retaining top end talent. It’s not as if that 10% amounts to that much and many of the people who have left don’t even fully understand what Substack boost (customer retention) has done for them. Retention, offers and discounts on auto-pilot are hard to do yourself they will find out.

Writers just aren’t very good at understanding the nuts and bolts of media, they are just too focused on production. They also get a bit righteous when they have a bit of success. They begin to think they are special or entitled.

Anti-Trans and Nazi Content

That a few personalities profited from Substack’s Nazi problem is pretty nefarious to me. Substack’s failure rate at Substack Pro deals really was quite a spectacle of how to waste a16z’s money! It’s as if the founders of Substack had some misunderstanding of how hard media is as a business and what it actually takes to grow as a whole. Instead of doing their homework, they trial and errored a kind of influencer marketing. Well, six years later it hasn’t really worked. They clearly had very little marketing understanding in how to scale a platform and they relied too much on influencer marketing (on some bad advice by the way).

Even credible journalists in very specific niches have had a really hard time (okay no chance) in this Creator Economy environment. Jacob Wolf’s journey was just heartbreaking for me to follow.

But this mob thinking around censorship vs. content moderation is extremely naive. The successful writer on Substack thinks they earned it, they have very little understanding of paid subscriptions and customer lifetime value and just how pivotal Substack’s own Substack boost is in growing their monetization.

Writers just aren’t very good at understanding the nuts and bolts of media, they are just too focused on production. They predictably also get a bit righteous when they have a bit of success. They begin to think they are special, they enter a period of entitlement all too easily. In many cases because they were early case studies Substack was trying to make an example for others. How much of that is organic and how much of that is Substack pushing levers? Or simply good timing? And being here a lot earlier than others who write in a similar way? None of this is transparent on Substack.

Will I miss my friends who are leaving Substack? From Garbage Day to who knows who else, I haven’t really been paying attention. The problem when paid subs is the ONLY business model is it really does incentivize you to write clickbait, and not actual substance as is sometimes claimed by Substack’s marketing and evangelists. It’s still not about the value you provide to deep readers, but the seeming value you provide when your readers are consuming your work in five seconds. Most of your readers won’t be ‘deep readers’.

As for myself If I hadn’t had done Paid sponsorships or had more than one Substack publication, as Substack advised me to do, I wouldn’t have been able to afford to even still be here and I’m not going anywhere. I wouldn’t have even lasted two years here. I get why Substack doubled down early on on political writers, they have over 10x the conversion rates of business or tech topics.

At a time when media and the creator economy are in dire straits, I still like the challenge. But this is writing on hard mode, and if you need a living wage in most places in the world, well you are out of luck. I recognize that LinkedIn or Substack are only tools to reach an audience. One may be cringe and the other pretty toxic, but that’s the American internet for you, it’s not as if it was thriving, and hasn’t been for quite some time. Most people have no clue what LinkedIn posts are or even know what Substack is. We are small fish in a small pond.

Substack Notes was conducive to writers talking to other writers. Frankly I never met many readers there. Impressive how easily they (the writers) misbehaved or decided to cause some form of American chaos. Creating a mock rebellion against freedom of speech doesn’t impress me one bit. They knew full well what Substack’s stand on all of this was. This era of identity politics and whether you are left or right should not determine which platforms or apps you read or which you write on.

Nobody discovers you on Wordpress or Ghost any longer, we are in a different era now. I’m not going to find you on X or bump into your work on Instagram Threads.

That won’t happen.

So when I think of Casey Newton now in 2024 or after, I’ll just think of a Silicon Valley media type who tried to strongarm non-existent Nazi publications and use ideology for his own ends. I won’t even think of his articles stacked full of hyperlinks. I won’t dream in electric sheep of the cool memes of Garbage Day. Because well, there are other meme watchers around.

It's time to leave Substack

Why Platformer is leaving Substack

🌍 If Substack was more International

American voices are tiresome.

Maybe with some Americans leaving Substack, it will leave some room for the rest of us who live out in the real world where politics and duality doesn’t rule our lives, where we appreciate all sorts of voices and are capable of hearing people outside our own echo-bubble.

The competitors to Netflix aren’t even close to profitable, and I’ve lost count how much money Netflix itself bleeds. If traditional media is in trouble, you can bet the Creator Economy isn’t exactly thriving there.

I too had little patience for the Anti-vaccine content so popular on Substack, but it didn’t make me think I should boycott the platform! I’m definately not going to bump into any Nazis here, because political content is pretty cringe. Especially in an election year. Nor would recommendations for such Newsletters even work properly in 2024.

Algorithms have cleared radicalized Americans and political propaganda has stained their psyche. The system of the distribution of news and essays is however broken, just as Media’s pivot from Cable to Streaming. Everything from mainstream Media to streaming isn’t really working in America. The competitors to Netflix aren’t even close to being profitable, and I’ve lost count how much money Netflix itself bleeds. If traditional media is in trouble, you can bet the Creator Economy isn’t exactly thriving there.

Even the Media gurus who like to talk about Media don’t seem their usual or former selves. And it makes me wonder the kind of content that will actually last on Substack for years and years, and not just staying while it’s good or while they agree with some ideology. Substack’s marketing should never have tried to be ideological, it creates more confusion that it helps Creators monetize even a meagre living. The Substack cofounders are deeply inheriting Medium’s shtick here. And it’s not particularly good karma. Nor is it a media business model that will make sense to most Creators.

The truth is, there aren’t any champions or leaders left in how the American media is going. There are just a bunch of temporary voices. Media outlets die almost as fast as they are born and you can nearly predict their term of existence, relative to their political orientation. There is no soul left in media or the Creator Economy, just a lot of gimmicks.

The layoffs at Twitch show a Creator economy failure on so many levels. Video is still eating news articles, short form micro video is still eating the world. Young people don’t write poetry or read fiction, for the most part in America. There is no real demand for culture in writing. Rather than listen to what the data is saying, ideology won’t help the Creator economy. Marketing narratives respun aren’t a business model.

The Echo Bubble is Real

Casey Newton came to Substack with maybe 20,000 readers and leaves with 180,000 while pretending he’s morally above it all, while profiteering greatly from what Subsack enabled him to accomplish and finally damaging its reputation. Is that journalism? Silicon Valley is full of homeless people, crime, and Billionaires building doomsday shelters and Hawaii mansions. And Casey Newton wants to talk to me about Nazis? Silicon Valley and the Tech news cycle is already mostly dominated by the same voices and perspectives. It’s also paradoxically a very white male Venture Capital dominated world. I live in that world too when I try to think about tech startups, and it’s pretty narrow. I’m glad there are other perspectives.

Hamish trying to speak through a fiction writer on Substack was very bizarre to behold. I like Hamish, but I didn’t like his strategy or chosen response. Not only was he late to reply to the movement, but he didn’t do so very successfully. Substack is an agostic tool, it should not play favorites or play politics. Don’t try to make moral arguments with journalists. Don’t try to speak through someone else’s writing. It should not give in to critics. But it did, and it lost some of its long-time writers anyways. Just as a writer needs to tell their own truth, listening to the audience or the customers isn’t always what is needed.

Substack is a Portal, It’s Not a Destination - Not a Fan Club

Let’s face it, as a reader, there are literally too many Newsletters to be staunchly loyal to anyone anymore. I don’t read you for your personal brand mate. I don’t believe in the cult of personality or the personal brand of writers, but I do believe in being highly obsessed with topics. Newsletters help readers appreciate the topics that they are obsessed about. Substack’s approach to categories is flawed, like I have spoken to before.

The truth is, Stratechery by Ben Thompson isn’t unique, and neither is Platformer, Tech Won’t Wave Us or whatever other publications leaving Substack. We’re really not that special. Journalists don’t even write in a way that is credible, nevermind deserving of our reader attachments.

We are just voices in the world and temporary creators, journalists, writers, essayists and curators. I don’t respect Katz or Atwood any more for doing the predictable of starting bandwagons and using their fame for ideological manipulation. This is how these people have built their livelihoods, stirring the pot. But they are not of the new world, they are of the old world.

They don’t know what the Creator Economy is or what happens to society once media dies. And it is dying. They don’t know how hard it is for a Creator just to earn some daily bread. They are quasi-elites. They don’t have sympathy for young people or those of us who are horried with what Israel is doing to Gaza, yet again. There really are more serious things to worry about than a few half-dormant accounts on a free speech platform. And Casey Newton is wrong, recommendations barely work any longer, it’s not easier but harder to grow an audience in 2024 as it was in 2021. He’s among a chosen few, reaped the majority of its benefits. He doesn’t have the perspective to be honest.

Substack is Still Young

Substack is only six years old, and I’ve been on it for a third of its lifetime. Churn is a huge part of this business. You have to grow faster than you bleed readers and piss off audiences. The same is true for this underfunded startup.

For some of its most successful writers (who were made rich by it), to leave based on ideological concerns, is pretty underwhelming. Perhaps they are also being politically correct and are part of a clique who grew up together on Substack. Privileged to have started a substack, before others. That’s what it comes right down to. Perhaps that’s what the recommendation engine started in April, 2022 accomplished. It created elites.

People have a love-hate relationship with social media and platforms, and it’s not as if Substack is even big enough to dislike. It’s not Facebook or Google who have done some pretty awful things to dominate. Subtack is small, it’s still an underdog. I’ve always liked that about it, even if some of the ideology is cringe (like Ads being bad), or that its app is terrible. It’s a small startup, that’s the entire point of what makes it bearable. Their cofounders are human, at least, used to be a likeable trait. Let’s be realistic about what we are talking about.

But the drama lately was too much for me to even pay attention to on Notes. What a turn off for most readers, whatever their political orientation. Perhaps Substack is more like another Medium than I first wanted to admit to myself. Writers writing Notes about the platform, as if it mattered. A platform turning in on itself? Subtack is not run like a legit startup, but is practically run as some kind of fringe cultural center. Substack has also tried to force certain topics on the audience, where not much of an audience actually existed. These are painful mistakes for a startup on year four, five or six to be making! Their inability to pivot is also notable.

Substack’s idea of product-market fit wasn’t really very well tested. They took in random people from Twitter and thought they were good writers. That’s not how media or the Creator Economy works. They neglected what young people were looking for, and instead targeted pointless demographics that have no future. They wasted money and funding on pet projects and biased goals. It’s sad really that they didn’t seem to learn much from these trials.

Substack Needs to Grow up

Substack has a lot of growing up to do and in theory it should be more mature as a product than it is today. Its brand reputation has a serious problem. All of this favoritism, clickbait and ideological manipulation in the marketing has to stop. It’s also deceptive. It’s not developing a healthy culture by doing these things. It’s literally its own worst enemy and that means, it needs a leadership change. It needs to pivot, yet even there it seems to refuse to do so.

Substack needs to be less politicalized and American. But it will have trouble doing that. Without more funding and accepting a lower valuation, Substack is neither here nor there, stuck in a limbo that doesn’t represent the future of writing. Substack building itself off of Twitter was a bad idea, and I hope whoever streered the product in that direction sees that now. There were consequences for building politics and culture into major pillars of your writing revenue and audience.

Trying to lure journalists to Substack wasn’t probably the right mindset to have. How has that turned out for Substack outside of a few very click-bait prone political journalists? Instead Substack should have championed its own homegrown talent. It should have identified and worked on categories that had a sustainable future ane educational value. Again, not people with many Twitter followers! That’s not how scale works. All of these biases within Substack contributed to this media led and user-led rebellion. It could have all been avoided.

What will they learn from this?

Our Words are Anonymous

The reality is even if I read your Newsletter pretty often, I probably wouldn’t realize if you decided to leave Substack or notice that you aren’t in my inbox. It’s very difficult for a writer or creator to stand out in the world. A LinkedIn Top Voice used to mean something, today they give them out like candy in 2024. With LinkedIn posts and X threads still the fast-food of our writing consumption. There’s a sense of desperation in media, content and the creator economy today.

Subsack isn’t big enough to tolerate civil wars. Notes was the perfect writer’s hangout for mutiny, manufactured or real, to take place.

And good riddance to the people who leave for Ghost or another platform. I honestly will probably never read them again, it just won’t be convenient for me to do so. I’m not following anyone, anywhere.

Substack is a portal to the imagination and thought leadership of writers all around the world. And paid subscriptions alone isn’t going to pay the bills for most of us writers, we’ll actually have to learn to be Creators. Let’s stop deluding ourselves and go with facts. Substack thinks good writing alone is enough for someone to make it, but it just isn’t.

Already Famous

Enough with the influencer ego and champions of social justice. These are dire times for media and creators, let’s support the little guys.

The people who are grateful, grateful that a wider audience can discover them, not just trashing platforms, just because they have the privilege of writing about them or because they are already famous and entitled.

I don’t and never wanted to discover famous people on Substack. Please Substack don’t lure them here. I won’t realize who has left Substack or follow them to Ghost or beehiiv, I’ve seen it all before. I know what happens to most of those people. Substack is made for all kinds of voices and they can write about whatever they see fit.

I’m not here to entertain celebrities and I’m certainly not hear to read the same stuff of a tired journalism on the decline. I’m not here for culture or social justice warriors. I’m not here for the tired politics of the United States that pretends to still be a representative democracy.

If writers want to graduate past Substack when they think they are financially able to do so, perhaps that should be something we celebrate. Maybe the future of media is neither journalism or Creators, maybe it’s something else. If journalists just to make it need to make dystopian concessions, as if they compromised their values just to be on Substack, then those people are probably not the best fit for substack in the first place.