Substack is the Main Beneficiary of the Twitter Exodus
Clear signs of "new media dominance" for Substack
Hey Guys,
If you started a Newsletter on Substack before 2022, you literally made the right choice since history is the best predictor of future success, we can safely say Substack has a bright future once again as we head into 2023.
Let’s briefly share why this is:
Substack recommendations launched in April, 2022 was a tremendous success in its first 6 months. Many of the biggest individual beneficiaries of this trend compounded their growth on LinkedIn and Twitter.
The demise of Revue, Facebook Bulletin and other Newsletter platforms mainly benefitted Substack.
The Twitter Exodus momentum led to considerably more talent and variety of writers joining Substack.
The Creator Stackers. The movement from YouTube and TikTok creators making a Substack showed a significant increase including Instagram Creators.
Substack Android App Launch. The android app launch and subsequent Substack chat product boosted adoption and importantly discovery.
Substack’s Network Evolution: Writer recommendations and in-app discovery features like in-app recommendations - do compound. It’s now a valid substitute for an algorithmic feed.
Substack has Better Public Relations: In 2022 Substack leadership refind its approach to public relations, and it shows in the MSM coverage.
So these factors listed above, basically means Substack is rising above its supposed competition as a platform that’s growing faster and scaling its core value proposition of creating one-to-one relationships for writers, journalists, analysts and creators.
Twitter Free Speech Also Boosts Substack Adoption
With the elections quickly coming up in 2024, more political writers are building a Substack as well, hoping to replicate the incredible Substack discovery of other political writers. Namely this tweet: (this pushed Substack over a critical edge of compounding success) by
So various political analysts and writers show renewed enthusiasm for Substack’s product.
The trial of YouTube, TikTok and Instagram Creators scaling their Substack has also been successful as savvy Creators add “Substack” to their stack of online tools that’s actually revenue-generating.
Forget the articles on Mastodon or other “Twitter alternatives”, many of which are not scalable outside of Post News (over-time). The Post focusing on news and without Ads is important.
How Substack Writers are using sponsored Ads and Talent Collectives to diversify their revenue streams, also means pure-play writers can actually begin to maybe earn a living. First only a few, gradually more and more. This is one of the huge untold stories of Substack in 2022, which I have noticed and have began to cover here.
That is, Substack can lead to other kinds of revenue. This wasn’t clearly understood perhaps in 2021 the way that it it today. Pallet, Paved and a host of other third parties have found creative ways to tap into the Newsletter economy, just as Creators have realized having a Newsletter is a great way to keep in touch with their followers and build valuable offshoots of community.
Since Substack’s famous first-movers typically had a persona of already having an established Twitter following, the Twitter Exodus of 2022, was the perfect synergy for Substack’s “comeback” growth after a difficult period for the Creator Economy generally speaking circa 2021/22. Substack was essentially primed to inherit disgruntled Twitter users and influencers. Mastodon, or other Twitter alternatives simply don’t have the infrastructure, product talent or funding to be able to replicate what Substack has done for non-algorithmic discovery.
Even beehiive is having trouble replicating the Substack Network, also because it fails to tap into the most lucrative niches of writers online, currently political and financial/investing writers at scale. While beehiive has a competent team, Substack’s employees have more inclusion and diversity that likely also gives them an edge to cater to a variety of different kinds of writers.
In fact in 2022, people have actually migrated back from Ghost to Substack, and it’s important tor ecognize. Substack discovery in 2023 is now Middleweight, in that it’s reaching a point of maturity. Substack can pull various levers to benefit those Writers who “come back” for the discovery advantage of the Substack Network.
One of the better examples of this is Azeem, see his post about it:
Substack and Election Fever
So given the current trends we have then enough data to make a basic prediction. Substack will be the major beneficiary of political journalism in 2023/24. Not only from a Twitter exodus but from a more pro “free speech” policy of Twitter’s new ownership.
Substack can thus benefit from both Republican and Democrat leaning political analysts, writers, journalists and their coverage.
On the Technology side both business and technology writers popularity on Substack compounded on LinkedIn as well. Just ask Lenny or Gergely. Substack’s Network thus literally “spills over” into other platforms and this compounding rate is very high like we saw for the top category leaders on Substack.
So not only is Substack the main beneficiary of scale of the both the Twitter exodus and the Twitter dynamics of its mob, other anti-Ad platforms like Post News could further accelerate new kinds of news coverage. Additionally Facebook’s beef with the Journalism Competition and Preservation Act (JCPA) that was introduced in Congress by Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar and has bipartisan support, could further solidify Substack’s support in 2023.
Given these reasons, if you were an early adopter to Substack pre 2022 or ideally pre 2020, and were consistent with your approach (over years, not just months), you may be a position to scale along with Substack’s own wave of growth. Platforms like Substack are a long-game, as creators for the most part we cannot hope to see results in weeks.
Substack’s own employees and leadership also have several levers now at their disposal that they can further you growth - such as being a Featured writer, being mentioned on their in-house publications and in their app. This foster a culture of brand ambassadors and a culture of general win-win dynamics.
These are just my personal observations and common sense, but may not be common knowledge. As such I expect Substack to have significant growth in the 2023 and 2024 period, where political debate reaches a frantic pitch on Twitter, and Substack benefits from both the exodus and free speech movements, directly and indirectly. While you might assume those with massive Twitter followers benefit from starting a Substack, having a Substack now also improves your Twitter following.
This can be a big deal for Influencers and writers more on the journalism and breaking news side of things.
Thanks for reading!
I share your bullishness on the Substack platform, though not as much on the recommendations that are part of the sign-up flow of a publications. The conversion rates from those sign-ups are almost zero... whether due to an information overload in their inboxes, or because of poor targeting, I'm not sure.