When Does Substack Reach a Tipping Point?
Hey Guys,
As LinkedIn keeps hiring News curators and “Creator Managers” I have to wonder at the future of journalism.
Twitter Notes is now in Beta and in 2022 podcasting and paywalls are just the new normal. As a media watcher, and a creator active on Substack, I’m thinking about the Creator journey more in their ecosystem.
Luckily for Substack, most Newsletter products have been falling flat of late. There was this brief window when Substack exploded in growth between 2020 and mid 2022.
Substack still mostly grows by making deals with big established professional writers and have massive followings. I’d argue that Substack Network effect reaches a tipping point when more “amateur writers” start to join its platform more organically. Inspite of an impressive boost during the pandemic, I’d argue we have yet to reach that point.
Don’t make sad concerned faces dear Substack Employees, remain firm in your unique value proposition. It is real.
Substack’s human-first approach however is appealing to get away from the contamination and wrong incentives of algorithmic platforms. I’m really interested in Substack’s differentiator and disintermediation quality.
I hear about Creators being auto-banned on TikTok, YouTube and other places nearly every day. If Substack is serious about freedom of speech and non-censorship, maybe it’s a safe place to create in the ownership economy with dignity and where a town square can thrive with a minimum of drama.
Substack has a promising foundation of Creators and Network Effect. Considering its vast superiority in monetization it’s rather curious fewer amateur bloggers try it out than one might expect. Perhaps they are shy to put in the work?
Substack is not exactly high-brow, in fact it has a lot of rather random (and somewhat questionable) content. It’s all good, it’s still a vastly superior way for “indie” writers and podcasters to find a cozy home.
The Uplifting Manifold Niche
However, it’s niche-content, at its best. The way it on-boards to Podcasting and Video might in the end be the most interesting part.
What Substack becomes is better than what it is today, and it’s more amusing to join products and ecosystems in their growth phase. That is, product innovation is occurring at Substack. It nearly reminds me of Snap in its early days, in this respect.
Exploring Substack’s realm is like finding blogs at the beginning of a new internet. There’s a sense of new discovery that each person brings. Not just in the topics, but in the stories.
Substack is small enough that a single Creator can create ripple effects. That point of entry is priceless. Substack’s relationship of unity in diversity and promoting the individual’s direct relationship with their audience is a unique value proposition that’s relatively strong.
I’m not a product-marketer, but I only wish the best for new ecosystems in the ownership economy.
Decentralizing Cyberspace Freedom of Expression
Substack enables a one-to-one relationship between Creators and their core-audience and a way to not only create content, but build, develop and empower community. This has important attributes of scalability over time if a writer or Creator is persistent and passionate enough.
Substack realizes it did something right with Substack Recommendations (April, 2022) and the data looks very promising.
I have been “accused” of speaking truth to power for the last fifteen years, and I concur. The thing about truth is that it exists simply and clearly but never autonomously. - Rana Ayyub
The Human Beauty of Cross Pollination
Cross-pollination is even beautiful when it’s human and not algorithmic. Getting away from advertising based incentives feels incredibly important for our well-being as Creators, who already are prone to burn-out and mental health information and social media overload.
There is a not so insignificant movement of Instagram creators now joining Substack in 2022. The customer-success stories are more varied than ever. The diversity of creators by topic, location and niche is truly one of the most inspirational things about Substack.
What are the evangelists of Substack today like? Who are the brand ambassadors if not the creators themselves. Many Creators on Substack give you “deer eyes” when you ask them if they have a paid option, that speaks volumes to the inspiration intrinsic in the platform that creates a seamless way to write about a topic that is close to them.
Substack appears to be about the indie writer and ownership economy’s future. But as its core product improves, you might begin to see podcast-native and video-native creators begin to use the platform. That too represents the tipping-point, where younger GenZ Creators begin to use the platform in greater numbers.
It’s not about our ability to chart our free subscribers on a graph, it’s fundamentally about our ability to tell stories others find value in. There are people out there like us everywhere, and how many niche paid super-fans do you need to pay your food bills or your rent?
Since GenZ values freelancing, diversifying streams of revenue and being entpreneurs, Substack has a bright future. Its core-product scales well with the future of work inclination of younger professionals and the Alpha cohort.
So if all goes well, Substack does have a sustainable long-term future.
When does Substack Reach a Tipping Point?
When more amateur indie writers pursue it, and not just big professional writers with a sizeable following, community and E-mail list.
When more Podcasting and Video native Creators join it.
When more GenZ and Alpha creators discover and thrive on it.
The story of wider adoption is not about monthly views, or SEO or total revenue generated. It’s about people telling stories better in a safe place.
Substack Recommendations - Substack Network
Now, what if you didn’t have to “chase” getting new people to listen to your stories?
What if, over time many people like you also “shared” their super-fans for the benefit of a better reader and writer experience?
This is then a human-based automation of:
lead-generation
targeting
cross-pollination
and mostly importantly, Inspiration.
The Power of Freedom of Expression in a Silo
The Substack creator minds us of something primal in the human right for freedom of expression:
We are curators of emotion, motivation and inspiration and our stories reflect the will of humanity to transform itself into a better version.
Since Substack invisibly provides, lead-generation, targeting, cross-pollination (all via Newsletter Recommendations), and an audience ready to be inspired, a globally distributed “town-square” (GDTS) of readers is forming.
Think about that for a moment. I often have these debates with my friends on Ghost, Wordpress or Medium or somewhere else. Substack is an ecosystem of discovery-friendly tools, it facilities builders. Substack attracts then creators who are powerful storytellers at their core.
You literally don’t have to do anything, just focus on finding your voice and creating high quality work. This keeps your open-rates high enough to make your conversion rate promising enough that you will keep doing it.
The Point of Sustainable Creator Immersion
There’s a point that can be reached where for a writer, it’s all worth it. By lowering the bar to entry, Substack accelerates how Creators can arrive at that realization.
Yeah so that’s the kicker, starting something you actually want to keep doing.
Free from algorithms, wrong incentives, platform ARPU environmental press and chasing people on social media, what could you create?
Substack realistically has a chance to be part Web2, part Web3 and a brand of the future in the Metaverse.
So what is the tipping point?
It’s the moment the product team and engineers build something that’s so much better than anything else out there for Newsletter, that it becomes the preferred choice, for niche creators, podcasters all in a safe silo with full control over their medium.
An entire Stack of creator tools, community and proof of scalability.
A swiss-army-knife of building a future where writers, podcasters and new media pioneers can flourish by being paid directly by readers.
So as I watch the Creator Economy evolve, the ownership-model interests me the most. As Subscriptions explode, competition is going to get intense.
When I quit poetry to become a blogger, I didn’t do it as a career choice, I did it because it was a fun way to learn. For a generation that has grown up on YouTube, Snap and TikTok, the tipping point is when Substack feels like that.
When the intrinsic human need for self-expression becomes so intense, and apps become so toxic, we need a refuge and a safe-haven. My hope for Substack is to build that place.
Thanks for listening guys!
Substack’s Product Innovation is Real
I’m sufficiently impressed with Substack’s product innovation as well. As I was pondering its future it had yet another announcement today.
We can also embed Anchor directly into Substack now, which is a huge help to start creating audio content. Anchor is truly the easiest way to make a podcast.
Do read more about how some Substack creators plan to use polls check the comments here.