TSMC into the Global limelight in 2025, Nvidia under pressure, Geopolitics anticipating Trump State, U.S. ramps up China Export controls even further

A very bizarre atmosphere in 2025 is emerging.

Hey Everyone,

I’m still on battery saving mode, so today’s issue might be shorter and less thorough than usual. As we head into 2025, semiconductor supply chains, AI chips and supply chains for American technology, have never been more crucial for human civilization, the global economy and the shareholder value of the most profitable BigTech corporations in the world.

• Welcome to the 22nd edition of Semiconductor Things™, where I seek to break down some of the news in the Semiconductor, AI chips and datacenter space globally to make it more accessible and easy to follow. Due to Thanksgiving we skipped a week, so this post will be a bit more epic than usual.

• Usually this Newsletter is twice a month, sometimes a bit more.

• This Newsletter explores TSMC, Taiwan and Nvidia in particular. Earnings are a lot of what I want to cover on an ongoing basis.

• I’m convinced that in 2024 watching the AI chips and Semiconductor space is actually the most interesting it’s been in decades.

Support me doing this for as low as $1 a week. Please see my archives for more on what to expect.

Typically now the Newsletters comes out two or three times a month, usually around Thursday morning (ideally at 7-9 AM EST window). Functionally often a bit late. More frequent publications might appear on Friday or even Saturdays for premium readers.

The Newsletter is mostly concerned with micro events in the semiconductor News cycle.

🔵 As I cover emerging tech over a wide spectrum, curating the AI chip and Semiconductor News forces me to keep in touch with the industry news cycle and keep learning about the various companies involved.

⚫ Today’s issue covers approximately the period of December 13th, 2024 to January 9th, 2025.

⚪ I will be tracking some breaking news and writing some Op-eds here. Though this has been slow to get off the ground. We are behind schedule.

While it’s challenging to summarize such a busy space, you could get away with just following this Newsletter, and you’d be okay.

Previous Issues

1. Intel Loses CEO, Google Trillium, Nvidia Earnings, Amazon Trainium 2 and More Trade Wars

2. OpenAI's AI Infrastructure plans, AMD Layoffs, ASML Projections, U.S. playing the "Taiwan Card" could hurt both China and Taiwan.

3. SK Hynix Boom, AMD's Poor Guidance, China's Evasive Maneuvers, Earnings coming into Focus

4. TSMC Earnings, ASML Woes, Nvidia's Blackwell Demand, Meta's Weird Datacenter Overhaul

5. Cerebras is going IPO, Intel's Woes magnified, TSMC news all around~ stormy weather.

6. The Semiconductor Boom Times: coming soon: 2025-2030 'Blackwell Surge Era'.

Taiwan’s TSMC is more Important Than Ever heading into 2025

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) will begin full-scale production in the United States and Germany, after the start of mass production at its first Japanese chip plant in Kikuyo, Kumamoto Prefecture, last December. New plants are scheduled to be completed in Arizona this year and in Dresden in 2027, while the construction of TSMC’s second Japanese factory is also expected to begin soon at a location adjacent to the Kikuyo plant.

It’s not clear to me if TSMC diversifying outside of the island of Taiwan is a deterrent to a Chinese invasion or the opposite.

Read the Japan Times for more coverage. Both Intel and Samsung in 2024 had poor years and it’s not clear who if anyone can provide to the world what TSMC is now capable of.

As you know, The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) plays a pivotal role in the global semiconductor supply chain, being the world's largest contract chip manufacturer. TSMC is responsible for producing a significant portion of the world's most advanced chips, holding approximately 54% of the global foundry market and producing nearly 90% of the most advanced chips used in various technologies, including artificial intelligence and high-performance computing. It is also crucial to the entire National economy of Taiwan with dozens of supporting companies and now western firms are building more satellite offices here.

Speculation is that TSMC is between 5-15 years ahead of SMIC and China’s own capabilities.